User blog:TheWickedWizardOfOz/5th-8th Place Match
Hey, so with the last chapter being released a few days ago, and the 5th-8th place match happening very soon, I thought I'd dump my thoughts on the matter somewhere :P Also I'm totally biased against Himematsu, they haven't presented as that strong of a school, compared to Senriyama or Shindouji in my opinion. While Hiroe is definitely a good player, due to the nature of mahjong, her defensive style is not the best in a tournament where the points carry over. I just think they're a completely uninteresting school. Sera says it best: at the end of the day, it's about who's won the most points. So bear with me :D Anyways, in the 5th-8th place match it'll be Shindouji, Senriyama, Uzusan, and Himematsu. Two of these schools utilise a weak-to-strong order, so it's difficult to say who will come out on top, because I definitely do not think that there's enough firepower to knock out any of the schools before the Vice-Captain's match (maybe Sera will really kick Yuan's butt though idk). Plus, each of the school's Captain's are super strong, so I guess it's up to Ritz :P But here I'll give what my predictions are, and the approximate points they'll have at the end of their two hanchan. In the vanguard match, I think it'll end up being a fight between Senriyama and Himematsu, for obvious reasons. I'm pretty certain that Suzu will blow up against Toki, with Hanada and Naruka on the sidelines not doing anything. Although I'm also inclined to think that Toki isn't "strong" enough for Suzu to blow up (since she didn't blow up against Yuuki or Shiro and ONLY blew up when Tsujigaito went on the offensive), making it a direct win for Senriyama. Toki can probably break 135,000 (+35,000) Suzu not too far behind at 110,000 (+10,000) with Kirame around 95,000 (-5,000) and Naruka at 60,000 (-40,000) For the sergeant match, it's definitely going to be the least impressive match since Kiyosumi curvestomped in their prefectural qualifiers. I think that Izumi will want to redeem herself and prove herself worth of her spot on the team, I don't think she'll fall into the same trap as she did before with Sumire, so she'll try her best to keep 1st place that Toki made. Yuuko is a steady player with unimpressive point gains (although notably all positive), and it's the same with Yoshiko. Despite Chikako putting in a lot of work, I don't think it'll cut it. Izumi will try to increase the distance, but I think that she'll end up with a negative point gain, with Himematsu and Shindouji closing in on the top spot, while Uzusan falls even more. ~Izumi 130,000 (-5,000) ~Yuuko 118,000 (+8,000) ~Yoshiko 102,000 (+7,000) ~Chikako 50,000 (-10,000) The lieutenant's match is hard to say. Hiroe and Sera are definitely going to be slugging it out with each other, but I'm not sure who's going to be on top, because they're foils to each other: Hiroe prefers a defensive style, while Sera prefers an offensive one; both aces (well...Sera was the ace); Hiroe talks a big game while Sera quietly took everything upon herself. Definitely here Shindouji and Uzusan will fall behind again, while Himematsu closes in on Senriyama, maybe even fighting for first multiple times throughout the match, matching each other blow for blow (and basically blocking each other). Hiroe is also sneaky, she'll play into a cheap hand to prevent Sera from winning her big ones. Himematsu = Senriyama > Shindouji > Uzusan. ~Sera 145,500 (+15,500) ~Hiroe 145,000 (+20,700) ~Ezaki 79,500 (-22,500) ~Yuan 30,000 (-20,000) Here is where I hope Shindouji and Uzusan begin their comeback, in the Vice-Captain's match. Shirozu Mairu completely dominated in her game during the Semifinals, and Maya can definitely score quite the number of points herself. Both Hiroko and Kinue are good enough players in their own right, but they will definitely be unable to handle Shirozu and Maya; especially since neither player has a particular "tell" (for one, Maya's ability is to get a Tsumo which can't be defended against; for two, Shirozu plays with what she's given, not m anipulating the tiles in any way). Depending on dealer rotation (and when Maya uses her shining Tsumo) Himematsu or Senriyama could be first, but Shindouji will definitely be very close to stealing first (especially with their double ace combo), with Uzusan closing the deficit, though not by much. Senriyama > Shindouji > Himematsu > Uzusan. Given past experience, Hiroko is better at utilising information given compared to Kinue, meaning she plays a better defensive game, making it more likely that Kinue is the target of the point loss between the two. ~Hiroko 134,000 (-11,500) ~Shirozu 112,500 (+33,000) ~Kinue 108,000 (-37,000) ~Maya 45,500 (+15,500) Now, in the Captain's match I'm not sure how things will go, because I'm sure Sawaya still has a few tricks up her sleeves, but I think at max she can only use 2 clouds (She had 3 clouds at the beginning of the semifinal, got one back near the end, and used 3, so at this point in time she only has one cloud, but the other cloud she used in the quarterfinals should come back), and she claimed to only have a few kamuy left, but still used about 5 of them. If Ryuuka and Toki perfected their combo, I think they could definitely put up a really good fighting chance. But, in the anime and manga, hands where Shirozu and Tsuruta's combo was in effect Tsuruta won that hand without exception, meaning that the Vice-Captain's match will directly affect the Captain's match: any hand that Shirozu won marks the high possibility of Tsuruta winning that hand, with even more points, AND Sawaya no longer has Hoyau Kamuy to help dull the other player's moves, meaning that they have all the freedom to unleash their combo. Kyouko might try to stop them with fast wins, but I don't think that'll happen since even pros can't handle their combo. Any hand where Shirozu didn't win, Ryuuka will try her luck using Toki's future sight, and Sawaya will attack during her dealership (she better hope Shirozu didn't win that hand...), Kyouko will definitely find it hard to get an attack in. In my biased opinion it should be, Shindouji > Senriyama > Uzusan > Himematsu. ~Himeko 152,500 (+40,000) ~Ryuuka 140,000 (+6,000) ~Sawaya 66,600 (+22,100) ~Kyouko 39,900 (-68,100) But it might end up as Himematsu > Senriyama > Shindouji > Uzusan. Category:Blog posts